Kleeman's Last Word

The NBA: where the trade windfall of an uncertain draft happens

For many lottery teams in tomorrow's NBA Draft the best picks will be the ones they trade away.

ESPN has convinced us that Chicago will snag hometown product Derrick Rose with the first selection. After that, don't be surprised if the Miami Heat choose a panda from a national zoo and sign him to a two-year deal.

USC star OJ Mayo will fall anywhere from pick two to 10 and Michael Beasley might be a more attractive investment if his last name was mustard. Mayo and Mustard - now that's a draft night combination worth sampling!

Laugh at the thought all you want, but the unprecedented volatility of this year's draft is no joke. How else do you explain French forward Nicolas Batum as a lottery pick in an early Fox Sports mock draft and now as the third pick of the second round in ESPN's latest consensus draft?

West Virginia forward Joe Alexander was a low first rounder two weeks ago but became a hot lottery topic this week.

Scouting expert Jonathan Givony is certain the Memphis Grizzlies will select UCLA forward Kevin Love with the fifth pick. Janny Hu, a San Fransisco Chronicle writer, predicts Milwaukee will select him eighth. Several early mock ups on Bleacher Report projected Love would fall in the 11-15 range.

ESPN's draft guru Chad Ford says Miami should not pass on Michael Beasley because he is the "most NBA-ready player in the draft." An article in the Miami Herald published last night said the Heat may pick Mayo instead because they question Beasley's pro preparedness.

The NBA: where "the great debate" becomes a convoluted Gene Hackman crime thriller.

That one workout has changed the apparent fortunes of so many players says all you need to know about the immediate value of this draft class. There isn't much.

If general managers had any idea what the hell to expect from this plethora of immature youngsters aching to wear the NBA's figurative diaper, Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless might know where he was headed. Love, Brook Lopez, Mayo, Beasley, Brandon Rush and Kosta Koufos might know, too.

One general manager who asked to remain anonymous in an Associated Press article confessed that teams have no idea where to place some of these freshmen and sophomores.

Is Bayless a Chris Paul-esque star or is he a nicer, more polite Smush Parker?

The above comparison sounds blasphemous even to my ears, but believe it or not, some folks once thought Parker would turn his high school stardom into NBA stardom.

Sure, two to five years down the road, some of these early exit kids may earn meaningful minutes on a playoff team but not this year. Probably not next, either. The trade winds are strong and expect many of them to stick around Thursday night.

The Portland Trail Blazers, Seattle Supersonics, Memphis Grizzlies, Minnesota Timberwolves and Charlotte Bobcats are too young.

Blazers' GM Kevin Pritchard holds an intriguing poker hand. His franchise star Brandon Roy exudes the class, humility and controlled confidence needed to win a championship the right way. He also carries the talent.

Pritchard hopes Greg Oden will anchor his rising franchise and develop into the NBA's next great post presence. Rudy Fernandez, perhaps the best athlete and talent in the ACB Spanish league, announced he will leave his team to join the Blazers next season.

Nate McMillan's roster boasts plenty of young men he can groom. Now the Blazers' need some old guys to teach them how to play.

Last year's draft lacked the schizophrenic nature of this one. Uncertainty happens every year, as most draft pools contain about five surefire picks with teams selecting the rest on availability and need.

When a draft has one certain pick, if you can call Rose that, two things are clear: One--many of these players should think less of themselves and head back to college. Two--teams singing the familiar lottery refrain will do so again next year if most of these players are as unreadable as they look.

Last year's draft yielded a few surprises. Who predicted that Leon Powe would score 21 points in game two of the NBA Finals? Who, other than maybe Rockets GM Daryl Morey and his former Purdue coach, foresaw the athletic, gritty fire pit that is Carl Landry?

Forward Brandon Bass, perhaps the toughest player on a Dallas Mavericks team that lacks the proper testicles, was also a second rounder. Kyle Korver, the sharpshooter whose outside stroke fueled the Utah Jazz to the second best NBA record after January, was an early second round pick.

History says that at least a handful of the 2008 draft class members will make this biting column look moronic.

No one should doubt the value of finding a Powe in a rough draft. The question is, do these surprises appear as often as we think? No.

Anyone watching Boston handle Los Angeles in six games had to notice 38-year-old PJ Brown out-hustling younger and longer Lakers big men for key rebounds. When the Celtics played well, the team's star trio of 30-something championship seekers--Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce--looked like they knew what to do.

The younger Lakers front line of Vlade "Space Cadet" Radmanovic and Lamar "Not Scottie Pippen" Odom looked confused and clueless. Powe is a young guy, for sure, and he enjoyed spectacular spotlight moments in the championship round.

With the last three NBA champions using older than dirt role players to perfection, it is difficult to imagine many from this draft performing key roles on playoff teams next season. Powe is special.

That's why most losing teams should package a few youngsters in a deal tomorrow night and land a veteran who can win on the NBA level. Can short-leashed Timberwolves GM Kevin McHale expect to continue drafting unproven players and hope that one sprouts into a star who can help big Al Jefferson avoid becoming the next wasted big man talent?

In a league where youth seems to promise eternal treasure, the old guys keep stealing the loot.

Bayless will likely anticipate his next lottery partner before he hoists a championship banner. Then maybe, he will shake his head and tell the freshman kid, who exited college after one season, that the figurative NBA diaper he so aches to wear, even if it means instant wealth, holds a lot of poop.

posted by Robert Kleeman @ 3:09 PM