Kleeman's Last Word

NBA Basketball Preview

Pat Riley's Miami Heat clinched professional basketball's most-coveted title just two weeks ago, dismantling and shattering a 60-win season by the favored Dallas Mavericks.

But Avery Johnson and Pat Riley are now being assured with one of the most active NBA drafts and free agent signing periods in the history of the sport, that a return trip to the NBA Finals is all but guaranteed.

The Portland Trail Blazers oozed and stomped its fingerprints all over draft night, promising that a quicker, more athletic squad is in store for the other 29 teams. But as a product of basketball's resurgence, few teams remain in the 'cross-off and slaughter' category.
The days of middle-rung teams counting on even worse teams like the Trail Blazers and the Charlotte Bobcats to get a few victories are over (namely the Houston Rockets).

The talent pool is vast and endless. David Stern's ego and pocketbook are smiling. The quality of playoff basketball has never been higher. Fans may have been treated to the greatest playoffs in sports history. Ever.

Basketball aficionados hoping to spot the next MJ are being treated to a new era where it's hard to find a team with a player that isn't all-star quality.
Where a single man once led an elite pack of superstars, the NBA's roster is a suffocating mush of high scorers and shot-blockers all hoping to be better than every other player. No one has managed to decisively reach the top of the heap. To understate the talent surplus--it's anybody's game.

Even second-rate stars like Emeka Okafor and Andre Kirlinko are better than the supporting casts that led teams to victories and the Larry O' Brien trophy in the 1990's.

With Ben Wallace, Bobby Jackson, Peja Stojakovic, Shane Battier, Speedy Claxton, Matt Bonner, Nazr Mohammed and Rasho Nesterovic already shipped off or headed to other teams, the shuffle button has been pressed and is operating at ludicrous speed. Will Minnesota wise up and shop around Kevin Garnett? Will the Sixers find a high-dollar suitor for veteran guard Allen Iverson?

It's an unscripted action movie that will bring some teams happy endings and others nasty blow-up scenes.

Here is the comprehensive prediction for next season. It's only July, I know. But when an NBA fan is about ready to pee himself, there's no time like the present to let it all out.

PHILADELPHIA 76ers
Overall assessment: The sixers are an imploding franchise. Iverson has flown the team as far a distance as it will ever go with him on it. Steven Jackson has run amuck in a mess of trades. Chris Webber just ain't playin' like Chris Webber anymore. With the starting lineup already a pipping hot question mark, that leaves the bench somewhere between hell and Shangri-La.
Solution: The first order of business is junking the aging Iverson. At just over 30, the shooting guard isn't that old numerically but his playing is beginning to show more than a few wrinkles. His shot is amiss, his defensive play is suffering and he's becoming more of a salary burden than a championship caliber asset. On another team (emphasis on the word 'another'), Iverson still has the court versatility to lead a team to the playoffs. Wherever he roams, the team better have some good backup reserves. This puppy is beginning to lose his bladder control.
Rodney Carney will add some much needed youth to the franchise, but this team has derailed indefinitely.
Season prediction: Playoffs? Not a chance. With or without Iverson, this team is as sure-fire no playoffs as your satellite cable is to go out when it's barely drizzling.

CHARLOTTE BOBCATS
Overall assessment: With Air Jordan at the helm, this expansion team (albeit a pointless one) is being run by one of basketball's smartest minds. However, picking up the pieces after a 26 win season will be cumbersome.
Missing pieces: The Bobcats have a ridiculous amount of room in their salary cap and should pursue free agents Jerry Stackhouse, Keith Van Horn or if they become available Iverson and Garnett. They have the money. Now they have to use to show they want a winning season.
Season prediction: Even without an expensive free agent, the Cats' made out wonderfully in this year's draft with the nation's leading collegiate scorer Adam Morrison. And unlike most draft teams, Charlotte is actually keeping the player they selected. Expect somewhere around a 32-34 win season.

MILWAKEE BUCKS
Overall assessment: T.J. Ford has not exactly shown he was top 10 material in the 2003 draft. In a year that gave us Dwyane, Carmelo, LeBron, Darko and so many others, T.J. has been a basketcase. He has the ability to fill up a game, but not the propensity. As a team, Milwakee is still the bottom of the pile. They'll be glad 2nd round pick, ACC All-Defensive Team Honoree David Noel, is in the mix. The trade for forward Charlie Villaneuva and cash with Toronto will juice this teams ability to contest shots at the hoop and drive the ball in at the other end.
Missing pieces: The Bucks would now have two outstanding young forwards to compliment the dinosaur Toni Kukoc (who once played alongside Michael Jordan). Assuming that Jamaal Magloire is headed for another team, that leaves Andrew Bogut as the team's premiere center. Every guard, save 6-year-old Michael Redd, needs massive improvement.
Season prediction: A playoff bid could be possible, but a tougher Eastern Conference will make it more difficult for the Bucks to be one of the eight teams that gets there. They can only go up from a 40-42 regular season record.

CHICAGO BULLS
Overall assessment: While Portland is receiving tremendous camera time for turning the draft into a revolving-door, trade-a-thon, it's the Chicago Bulls who may well be getting the best revamping of the offseason.
Mediocre center Tyson Chandler is off to New Orleans, while Hornets J.R. Smith and 36-year-old PJ Brown will be running with the Bulls. And I do mean running.
The Bulls traded with the Blazers to secure the ferociously athletic Tyrus Thomas from LSU.
They also just agreed to a top-dollar, $60 million plus deal with some guy named Ben Wallace.
With forward Luol Deng already emerging as a young shepard for the adolescent Bulls, the outift's four newest additions will make it that much harder for teams to knock them off in the playoffs.
Missing Pieces: The Bull's will have a dexterous front-court next year. This team has some guys who can really pound the ball in the paint and on the other end of the court keep opponents from doing just that. However, with all of Wallace's defensive faculties, he's still an offensive slug. At times, you'd rather have an overweight Star Jones drive to the basket than trust this 7-footer with racking up your points. The lack of depth in the reserves department will hinder this team from ever scraping past The Spurs, Suns, Mavericks or Heat.
Season prediction: Obvious playoffs candidate. This team can win more than 45 games and easily win a first-round playoff matchup. The Bulls are a few years off from going the full distance, but they'll get some good gas mileage along the way.

CLEVELAND CAVALIERS
Overall assessment: More aptly titled the Cleveland LeBrons. James has tentatively lost the battle of the 2003 draft stars to Dwyane Wade, but his team owes him a thank you card for last season's playoff berth. He shouldered the scoring burden in the 2nd round Pistons series and nearly led them to a 4-2 series victory. James has become dangerous from every inch of the court--perimeter, the paint, the wings and especially with that floater he drops so viciously. Starting forward Anderson Varejao is one of the league's three best defenders as evidenced by his "defensive player of the year" nod. Having the coot-ish Eric Snow as a third scoring option is a significant worry.
Missing pieces: Ilgauskas is one of the taller centers in the league and in the top-half, but he doesn't hammer the ball in the hoop like Yao or Shaq. The Cavs need better scoring options. As LeBron refines his inside game and becomes an even more confident shooter, his team will pick up momentum.
Season prediction: Playoffs for any team with LeBron James is almost just a matter of getting there, but as this team learns from last year's playoff run, they'll be twice as scary next season. The Wallace-less Pistons might not squeak by the Cavs this year. These guys are not quite a chamionship team, but they are strikingly close.

BOSTON CELTICS

LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES

ATLANTA HAWKS

MIAMI HEAT

NEW ORLEANS HORNETS

UTAH JAZZ

SACRAMENTO KINGS

NEW YORK KNICKS

LOS ANGELES LAKERS

ORLANDO MAGIC

DALLAS MAVERICKS
Overall assessment: Say your worst about Marc Cuban and his unrelenting, foul and savage mouth. Go ahead and just let it all out. The Riverwalk is not an "ugly-ass muddy watered thing" and Bruce Bowen certainly does not deserve to have a certain three word phrase yelled at him after the Spurs convincingly win a playoff game in Dallas. But with his public image skating in the unpopular zone, Cuban has done a 180 with the Mavericks. Where Dallas fans once cheered for the Mavs not to finish in last place, they now deservedly get to dream of a championship. And though some Dallasites might chastize Cuban for letting two-time MVP Steve Nash slip away, he has constructed a deep, athletic and physical team that will be winning clutch games for years to come. The Mavericks roster is one that will perform exceptionally for more than just a season. It's a guarantee that San Antonio will be scrambling to keep up as long as this fiery and fierce roster is composed.
Missing pieces: The Mavs, particularly scoring ace Josh Howard and sharp-shooter Jason "the jet" terry, lack any court vision whatsoever. They are atrociously bad at finding the open man and failed in the recent playoffs to dish the ball out to Dirk when he was blatantly begging for the ball.
When Adrian Griffin drives to the basket amid a double team not even eyeing the waving arms of Jerry Stackhouse whose ready from downtown, you have a serious problem. As Avery Johnson continues his expansion as one of the NBA's finest coaches, he will need to improve passing across the board. Silly turnovers, horrendous shots and clogged passing lanes plagued the Mavs throughout the playoffs. Perhaps Cuban might be willing to spend some dough on a team optometrist. Their glasses are a bit foggy.
And for Mavericks fans who hate the Spurs or have assured themselves that there is now the only one great team in Texas perhaps Avery's background should be recalled.
Don Nelson coached much like Mike D'antoni of the Suns and it's why Dallas never cracked the Spurs defensive shell. They were an offensive team hellbent on outrunning and outscoring every opponent.
It took a former Spur for the Mavs to morter enough mental-toughness and defense to beat the Spurs.
Every Dallas fan owes San Antonio a thank you card for the gift of Avery. They can start writing it now.
Season prediction: A return finals appearance is highly likely but hardly a given.

NEW JERSEY NETS

DENVER NUGGETS

INDIANA PACERS

DETROIT PISTONS

TORONTO RAPTORS

HOUSTON ROCKETS
Overall assessment: The Rockets are a disheveled wreck to say the least. But then again, a 34 win season is to be expected when your two superstar leaders play only 30 games together out of 82. When Yao and T-Mac were healthy and feeding the rock to one another on the court, the Rockets were winning more than 80 percent of their games. The obvious key is securing the health of one professional basketball's most dynamic duos. Last season, they were dynamic for all the wrong reasons--missed games, strained play, traps and double teams with no way out. The team traveled with the play of these two; it was a melancholy symphony that was as jarring as it was atonal and anticlimactic.
Solution: The signs all point uphill as the Rockets will fight to squeeze the pinnacle of milk from this misfit crop of players. The draft day trade for Memphis's Shane Battier will add Spur-like defensive talents to a team who allowed a lot of painfully easy buckets last year. With backcourt improvements pending, the front-court which includes the quick-stepping Rafer Alston began gel-ing at season's end. Luther Head is showing he will likely develop to the same prestigious level as Josh Howard, eventually becoming a full-time starting option. He can land you 20 points in a game, get you some key rebounds on the offensive glass and pass the ball around for the open man. What to do with point guard Bob Sura, who will be entering his 12th NBA season this year, is a mystery. He sat the entire season out on the injured list and has never molded into the smart, assist-man ballhandler the Rockets were hoping he would be.
The Rockets would do well to chase Phoenix's lightning fast point guard Leandro Barbosa. He's not a free agent this year, but like all players, he may have a price. His perimeter shooting and Tony Parker-esque quickness would add some depth and rejuvination to the sagging bench.
And where is David Wesely? The guard's shot is way down in Kokomo, probably being eaten alive by the island's critters. Something that might help Mr. Wesely immensely: a clue.
Season prediction: You never know with a Houston team whether full pontential will be seized or murdered in a dark alley. It's easy for Houston fans to long for a return of the winning Hakeem days, but even that era had its troubles. It took 9 seasons of Olajuwon's development before the Rockets could nab a championship. The Rockets also won in a two-year window when a certain #23 was off embarrasing himself as a wanna-be baseball player.
The Rockets have the stuff to sputter to the Finals, but the engine keeps dying intermittently.
You'd think after a 40 point knockdown by the Mavs in the 2005 playoffs that the Rockets would have mustered the circumstantial fuel, the drive and the poise to be 10 paces better. Houston fans were wrong. Again.
If the Rockets decide they want to taste victory as badly as Dwyane Wade did with his Miami Heat, they are a title contender. This time the Rockets need to actually put that Van Gundy pep talk into action

SEATTLE SONICS

SAN ANTONIO SPURS
Overall assessment: The Spurs have eclipsed themselves into dire straits. The loss of young center Nazr Mohammed will sting the boys in silver and black in the worst way. With Rasho Nesterovic gone to Toronto, the Spurs now lack a true center. Expect Tim Duncan to play some starting minutes at the position, but in a league where every team that has clinched a title in the last 20 years has had a 7-foot center, that won't cut the mustard. The letting-go of Nazr was a short-sighted blunder that should be both loathed and grieved. He performed poorly in the playoffs, but the Spurs didn't get past the second round. The last year he played well, THEY WON A CHAMPIONSHIP. Detroit offered the better, more lucrative contract, but the blame's solely on San Antonio for not at least matching the offer. Detroit will be thrilled to have Mohammed who will quickly fill Ben Wallace's gi-normous shoes. Greg Poppovich remains among the best of winningest coaches in the NBA, but he has to rely on an injury prone three-man core that has shown it can falter greatly.
Missing pieces: That the Spurs lack athleticism is a ridiculous argument only being made by haughty Dallas fans too full of themselves to understand the bold truth in front of them. The Spurs nearly robbed the Mavs of their commanding 3-1 series lead, but fell short in the heart-stopping, ulcer-inducing game 7 in round 2. Even without Mohammed, the Spurs still have one of the elite rosters and one that could still take out Dallas in a conference finals series.
Duncan finished the playoffs playing the best basketball of his life, averaging over 30 points a game in the Dallas series. His 69 percent free-throw shooting also went bye-bye temporarily. He had the will to just knock them down. Such is the case for all of the fighting Spurs who ranked 28 out of 30 in free throw shooting. Tony Parker is only 25-years-old, his best game lies ahead and he's a few years off from MVP material. He had the highest field goal pecentage of any point guard in the league last year. Manu Ginobili has the heart and the strength to overtake a fledging game.
However, with the plus side looking mighty attractive, there is an equally repulsive back side.
As evidenced by the foolish foul on Dirk Nowitzki in the final seconds of regulation in game 7, Ginobili also has the naive-ness to blow an all-important three point lead. As a foreign player, his eagerness to overachieve is a damaging Achilles' Heel.
Duncan has four years left on his contract and also likely, only four more years of being one of the most dominant forwards in the game.
The Spurs need to groom a replacement for defensive powerhouse Bruce Bowen in the next two years. At 35, he won't be able to hold the fort down much longer. He is a gigantic part of the Spurs' last two championships. Bowen is one of the few players skilled enough to tactfully guard the Lebrons, Dirks and Dwyanes of the league.
Pops might as well buy a row of walkers for the elderly men creaking off his bench. Robert Horry admitted that he "feels like a dinosaur" and Michael Finley is nearing the end of the line, too.
San Antonio will still own Texas basketball for the next four years, but the roster needs some serious trimming and juicing if they hope to stay that way.
Season prediction: Another 60-plus win season is in store. Time will tell if the Spurs can drive further into the playoffs than the second round. After all, they like winning in odd-numbered years.

PHOENIX SUNS

PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

WASHINGTON WIZARDS

MORE TO COME TOMORROW...

posted by Robert Kleeman @ 12:46 PM