Kleeman's Last Word

Rockets Will Face Toughest Test of Season in Dallas Mavericks

The Houston Rockets may have turned a few heads winning 9 of 11 since Yao's injury departure, but nothing Jeff Van Gundy's team has faced in the last two weeks could measure up to what awaits tonight.
They're ferocious, they're vengeful, their German star's David Hasselhoff humming seems to do the trick at the free throw line and most importantly, they can count their losses with just two hands. The Rockets head into the American Airlines Center to face the Dallas Mavericks, who at 31-8, like their chances of a repeat trip to the NBA Finals.
In the last 11-game stretch, Dikembe Mutombo passed Kareem Abdul-Jabar to nab second place on the all time blocked shots list, about 600 behind first place Hakeem Olajuwon. Shane Battier has been the leading scorer, twice. The Rockets' team has made more than 12 three pointers, four times. Tracy McGrady has scored more than 30 in nine of those games. The Rockets have passed two teams in the playoff hunt. The Rockets beat both of those teams-Utah and the Los Angeles Lakers-in blowouts.
Coming in to face the determined Mavs, the Rockets don't need momentum. They've spent the last month gathering it.
No, a win against the Mavs would be something far greater. A hint that maybe this franchise is championship material when Yao Ming returns in late February/early March.
In Tuesday night's matchup, the Rockets will be the ultimate underdog. Coach Van Gundy knows Avery Johnson will not allow his Mavs to lose by 30 points again. This is a different Dallas team than the one that started the season 0-4.
The Rockets will have to keep their defensive targets aimed at one Josh Howard, who has already accrued more 20+ point games this season than he did all of last season. Dirk Nowitzki, who has suffered some off-nights this season, is still the same Nowitzki that's nearly impossible to stop down the stretch. And don't forget about the Jet, who has had a handful of 30+ point games, currently averaging about 15 per contest.
The Mavs ranked third in PPG allowed to opponents. The two centers, Diop and Dampier, have traded starting duties at many points in the season, but facing Deke and his shaking finger, they'll be looking for a block party.

How the Rockets can lose:
The Rockets clutch decision making as of late has been spectacular. The ball movement, not so much. The team ended the first half against Sacramento shooting 7-11 from beyond the arc, an incredibly respectable percentage. By game's end, they made 12 out of the 31 they heaved up.
If Dallas sees that Houston is willing to settle for jump looks, they will eat the Rockets perimeter shooting alive. Relying on T-Mac's over the defender three bombs to beat an attacking Mavs team will not cut the mustard. For the game winner, maybe.

While the Rockets clinched road games in Denver and Sacramento with Shane Battier taking charges and three pointers and T-Mac taking over, their turnovers have also come at inopportune times. Attacking the basket and getting to the free thrown line will alleviate the concerns posed by chalking up long jumpshots on every other posession with 10 seconds left on the clock.

The Rockets have struggled to find the hoop in many of their victories, in some cases, their blowouts. Shooting less than 48 percent against this Mavs team will be the dagger in the skull. It would be nice if Luther Head continues his three point shooting streak to 37 or 38 games, but again, attack the basket. Free throws. Important. Got it guys?

The Rockets have won 9 out of 11, the possibility of a 10-game win streak broken in the middle by an overtime loss to Kevin Garnett and the Timberwolves. The Mavs have won 16 of 17. It's pretty obvious who has both the streak and momentum advantage.

How the Rockets can win:
T-Mac is back, the understatement of that phrase almost as funny as K-Fed's acting. But as well as #1 has been able to rack up 30 point games, he's needed the scoring support his teamates have given him. In two of the last nine victories, McGrady has scored 12 or less. Against the Lakers in the 102-77 blowout, he only scored eight. Battier. Howard. Alston. Head. Lucas III. Even Deke and Hayes on the putbacks. These are all secondary weapons the Rockets will need to be in fine form if they hope to dismantle the Mavericks on the road.

The Rockets have discovered in the last two weeks that a little confidence goes a long way. Playing with supreme confidence, there's no gaurantee the Rockets will win. But their chances are 10 times better.

Wins for the Mavs and losses for the Rockets as of late have been close. The Rockets should note that Dallas barely edged out the Toronto Raptors with a game-winning layup by Josh Howard and won in overtime by 2 over the Indiana Pacers. A win is a win and for Avery's club that's all that will matter come April, May and June. However, for the Rockets these tough wins for the Mavs should be psychological and pedagogical boosters for their confidence. If Indiana and the Toronto, both of which are struggling to play .500 basketball, can take on the Mavs for a full 48 minutes, certainly the Rockets who are 12 games over .500 can steal this win.

The Rockets defense prior to the Sacramento game was impeccable. Holding the Bulls, Lakers and Nuggets to shooting in the 30's. Now, that's great defense. Against the struggling Denver team, they forced Iverson to take more than 70 percent of the club's shots. And the Rockets shouldn't worry about that 90-86 win. The Mavs only beat them by four in their last meeting and the Spurs only notched a nine-point win.
Iverson is good, you know?

The Rockets have a lot hinging on this back to back. Let's hope they really have as much stuff as we all think they do. A little confidence against Dallas might go a long way.

posted by Robert Kleeman @ 8:28 PM