Kleeman's Last Word

Spurs draft preview: R.C. Buford battles the Euro

A surefire first selection in the NBA draft can pay dividends. More than ten years ago, ping pong balls rolled San Antonio's way and the Spurs found such a player. That guy's dividends include four championships, two MVP trophies, three Finals MVP trophies, a spot in the Hall of Fame and praise from many who call him the greatest to ever play the game at his position.

Spurs' General Manager R.C. Buford hasn't needed another Tim Duncan in the team's championship run and he doesn't need one this year. Still, this scorching summer will test Buford's sweat in many ways. He must take a veteran team that is right there in the championship hunt and remove the right.

What the Spurs do this off-season will dictate how far they go next May. The Spurs run at a repeat ended in an unflattering five game exit. The hardened and battle tested champs bowed to a Lakers team they should have smacked, bullied and trampled. Buford and Gregg Popovich deserve some time to grieve a botched back-to-back opportunity.

The Spurs may have blown the team's best shot at winning a title in consecutive years and need some luck to win another one at all. Tim Duncan nailed a three-pointer in overtime of the game that changed the playoff complexion. Rattled, upset and in mourning, the Phoenix Suns never recovered from that stunning 117-115 defeat and unraveled in five games.

The Spurs had no business winning that game, in which they trailed by as many as 16 points. The Lakers had no business winning game 1 of the Western Conference Finals, in which they, meaning Kobe Bryant, erased a 20-point third quarter deficit. Bad things happen when business goes sour.

Buford knows he cannot roll his eyes this offseason and keep the current roster intact. In years past, he laughed heartily as lottery losers stockpiled young and exciting prospects with no proven NBA ability.

"You keep your young guys and all the press. I'll keep winning championships," he said.

The Boston Celtics won a championship convincingly two weeks ago with seven players over age 30 and that means the Spurs can contend again. However, age reared its ugly head when key rotation vets Michael Finley and Robert Horry forgot how to put the ball in the basket.

Finley hit a string of clutch shots in the first round against Phoenix. His tanking three-point accuracy suffered in the conference semifinals against New Orleans and sputtered to a hault against the Lakers. He can still shoot in waves and defend role players adequately. His once potent driving game and finishing ability at the rim, however, has decayed.

Horry mustered a memorable block and steal in the Phoenix series and drained two threes in a second round game seven win on the road. Horry carries a reputation as a playoff performer who approaches the regular season with lethargy and indifference. His performance in the 2008 playoffs lacked its usual brilliance with no 10 rebound efforts or game-winning treys.

Horry and Finley seem convinced they can still help the Spurs climb the championship mountain. The two once clutch performers lost breathing ability at that mountain's halfway mark.

Buford's last productive draft pick starts at point guard and hoisted an MVP trophy in the 2007 NBA Finals. The Spurs selected Tony Parker in 2001 with the 28th pick and few outside of San Antonio will remember his story.

Popovich initially passed on the lightning fast French guard and had good reason to do so. Buford insisted that his coach give Parker another look. After the Spurs drafted him, Popovich gave Parker many other things, too, and they are in no particular order: verbal lashings, declarations that he would never earn his starting spot, belittlement at practice sessions and lofty expectations.

Since 2001, Parker has transformed from worst lay-up finisher in the pros to the standard for scoring in the paint. TNT's Ernie Johnson asked former Mavs coach Avery Johnson which point guard, Parker or Chris Paul, was harder to keep out of the paint. Johnson answered without hesitation, "Tony Parker."

One stunning conference semifinals moment proved this transformation. Then, Parker threw the ball at a popcorn vendor instead of the slashing Manu Ginobili. Popovich called his point guard over for a brief and civil chat then patted him on the back. "Let's go Tony. It's your game, baby."

It's your game, baby? Are you kidding me? Few who witnessed Popovich's verbal and emotional abuse of Parker saw this one coming.

Even fewer saw Ginobili, the 57th pick in the 1999 draft, becoming so important that his ankle injury would change the Western Conference Finals landscape.

Buford will battle the Euro this summer in several ways. He hopes to unearth another international talent that he can groom behind Duncan, Parker and Ginobili. The most promising draft pick since Parker, Tiago Splitter, decided to ditch the Spurs for two more seasons and stay with Tau Ceramica in Spain where he can triple what he would earn as an NBA player.

The bruising, low-post scoring forward would have juiced the Spurs in several lacking areas. Now, his absence should make Buford question whether his strategy of stashing future talent overseas can continue. The dollar's unsightly decline makes staying in Europe a more attractive proposition for international stars and selecting them an even greater risk.

As the Orlando Magic know with Fran Vasquez, a talented draft pick who avoids the U.S. is a wasted draft pick. An early 20s French forward, projected to be a late first rounder or early second rounder, seems like a great fit for the Spurs system.

He can shore up his lackluster defense, use his long arms to pester taller players and out-run and jump most of the current roster to the Texas-Mexico border. The risk in choosing Nicolas Batum is not his heart. He exhibits a tremendous passion and medical tests seem to conclude that his ticker will hold up just fine.

Every general manager that considers Batum will wonder if they are picking an overseas no-show. Batum would demote his star status in France by joining a team like the Spurs. He would have to accept less money and a limited bench role.

What will hurt Buford most is that his team needs young talent that can contribute immediately in a draft where there does not seem to be much of that.

Mock drafts predict the Spurs will select anyone from Ryan Anderson to Batum to Chris Douglas-Roberts. With no consensus pick, Buford must gamble. The same way he rolled the dice with Parker and Ginobili and won.

He doesn't need another Duncan, as No. 21 still reigns as the best at his position, but his aging roster needs help. Buford must find 'dividends' without the aid of the 'surefire' part.

Team needs:

+Reliable shooting to space the floor.
+Scoring threats to assist Duncan, Parker and Ginobili.
+In perhaps a summation of the above needs, a hybrid two or three who can contribute 10-15 points off the bench.
+A backup point guard for Parker not named Vaughn or Stoudamire

Likely roster returns:

+Tim Duncan, PF
+Tony Parker, PG
+Manu Ginobili, SG
+Bruce Bowen, SF
+Fabricio Oberto, C
+Kurt Thomas, PF/C
+Ime Udoka, SF
+Brent Barry, SG

Comments: Duncan and Parker are under contract until 2012. Ginobili is under contract until next summer when he will likely resign with a shorter deal. The above role players may all be 30-somethings but they can still contribute on a championship level. With Ginobili's health a chief concern, Popovich may sit his Argentine star in back-to-backs and throughout the season. He needs a hybrid scorer who can fill in for Ginobili on the nights he does not play. That same hybrid would be needed on nights when Udoka and Bowen are not contributing offensively.

Scoring droughts stung the Spurs and this current roster core cannot score enough to survive an 82-game season and drill 16 wins in the playoffs.

Decision players

Michael Finley
Robert Horry
Matt Bonner
Damon Stoudamire (probably a goner)
Jacque Vaughn
Vaughn is Popovich's prototype back up point guard. He hustles on every play, runs the offense with a quiet confidence and rarely makes poor decisions. He also didn't play much during the latest playoff run. A better scorer behind Parker would bolster the Spurs' offense.

Concerns:

+Manu Ginobili's health
+Manu Ginobili's health
+Manu Ginobili's health
and
+Manu Ginobili's health

Comments: Popovich has asked Ginobili not to participate with Argentina in Beijing because his ankle condition has not improved after a month of rest. If his star sixth man re-aggravates or worsens his left ankle, the new spelling of the Spurs will be t-r-o-u-b-l-e. That makes finding scoring help for the Spurs a paramount task. With so much pressure on the Big Three to each score 20 plus points in every game this season, the Spurs often found themselves in hideous scoring droughts. The Spurs still managed to knock off the Hornets in game seven on the road after a seven and a half minute, fourth quarter scoring lull. Do not expect that trend to continue.

That many minutes without a field goal against a Western Conference team is a death sentence.

The microcosms:

+A five point quarter against the Atlanta Hawks in San Antonio. The Spurs defense allowed only 16 points in that same quarter and the guys in silver and black won the contest in a 20-point rout.
+Ginobili shot for the lead in a must-win game five and missed. How many championships would the Spurs have won since David Robinson retired with this Ginobili? The same number of points he scored on that possession.

Possibilities to address concerns:

+Free agency
+Lanky and athletic D-League star Ian Mahinmi

Comments:

Can any potential draft pick, one available at 26, immediately step onto an NBA court and make baskets there? Can any of the prospective picks play Spur-level defense. The only way to land a rotation spot with flat defense is to shoot like Barry or Finley. It doesn't look like the Spurs can grab anybody that good in this draft.

Mahinmi dominated D-League competition, averaging almost 18 points and nine rebounds, earning first team All NBDL honors. He also continued the same disturbing foul fest that has concerned Spurs officials. Popovich's best shot at developing Mahinmi is tossing him into the fray, the same way he did with Parker.

Either tough love, a few verbal lashings and high expectations will fix this talented kid or they won't.

Best free agent fits within Spur reach:

+Eduardo Najera
+Carlos Delfino
+J.R. Smith
+Mickael Pietrus
+Andres Nocioni

To quote Buck Harvey from the San Antonio Express-News, "the one who makes the most sense for the Spurs doesn't have any."

One glance at Smith and another at the team's need for a two/three hybrid and it seems the Spurs have their guy. Smith can shoot lights out from behind the arc, dunks and attacks the basket with ferocity. His suck attitude has landed him in the coaching doghouses of George Karl and Byron Scott.

If the NBA player community has only a handful of thugs, he is among them. Off the court and many times on it, Smith is the anti-Spur. Harvey's one-liner sums up the prospect of a Smith/Spur marriage.

Popovich would have to agree to tolerate Smith and Smith would have to agree to settle for the Spurs' way for less money than Denver will likely offer him. Hey, if Popovich did it with Stephen Jackson...

Nocioni is a long shot but his stock has fallen in a disarrayed, disjointed and disoriented Chicago locker room. If the Bulls wanted to dump him, the Spurs would gladly add another Argentine alongside Ginobili.

The Spurs must spend a tight mid-level exception wisely, about $5 million, to lure any of the above free agents.

The conclusion:

An uncertain and unpredictable draft assures Buford of one thing. He will not have the same luck that once landed Duncan in San Antonio. A sad realization since he could use some of that luck now.

E-mail me: robertkleeman@mail.utexas.edu

posted by Robert Kleeman @ 2:36 PM