Kleeman's Last Word

Yao's Return Doesn't Immediately Fix What's Ailing Rockets

The Rockets are getting their mojo back tonight, in the form of a largely undefendable 7-6 Chinese center who makes the words "matchup problem" the biggest understatement in the universe.
However, the return of Yao Ming, who has been inactive since fracturing his tibia on Dec. 23 against the Los Angeles Clippers, is no quick fix for the myriad of ailments that has allowed the Rockets to lose three in a row at home. In the last eight games, the Rockets have dropped five, incuding two to the worst teams in the league, the Boston Celtics and the Atlanta Hawks.
Boston, you may remember, made an impassioned run at breaking the record for most games lost consecutively. The Celtics have been buzzkilled by their own roster injuries, but the team quite frankly, just sucks. The Rockets allowed 105 points to the league's lowest scoring team. At least Phoenix now has some company to share its pain (The Suns lost to the Hawks without Steve Nash 120-111).
What gives? With Tracy McGrady literally elbowing his way into the MVP discussion, how could such a great team lost to such inferior competition, even with the best player sidelined?
This pair of questions will be crucial if the Rockets ever want to win a championship with some variation of this roster. The Mavericks wouldn't lose to the Celtics without Dirk Nowitzki and the Spurs wouldn't lose without Tim Ducan. Prior to being blown out in Dallas, the Rockets were a cozy 6-1, beginning to separate themselves from the scap teams and the pretenders.
Bonzi Wells was averaging double figures, T-Mac was taking over crucial quarters and Dikembe Mutombo continued to play like a giddy 20-year-old.
In this last stretch of games, where the Rockets have fallen 14 games behind the Mavericks for first place, 5 behind the Spurs and 3 behind Utah, all of this has changed.
Let's face some reality markers; the bright orange ones that currently separate the Rockets from the other two elite teams. Houston is clearly not as good as Dallas or San Antonio and their play right now reflects that. As I have argued previously, I don't attribute this rift to a lack of championship caliber personnel, but to title-contending personnel not performing at a championship level.

The following ailments have been diagnosed by Dr. Kleeman and must be dealt with immediately.

OFFENSE, KNOCKING DOWN SHOTS
The ability to string together buckets has driven this team mad all season long. This team's inability to consistently find the basket with solid, open looks is why you don't want them running with Phoenix or trading baskets with Dallas.
If the Rocket's ever want a T-Mac, Yao led-roster to hoist that gorgeous Larry O' Brien trophy, every player on the team will have to learn how to provide consistent offense. Sure, even Dallas's Jason Terry has off nights, but when he's ice cold, there's usually somebody else ready to warm up. Dallas has shot under 40 percent on several occassions, most ending in one of their few losses, but they don't make poor shooting a habit.
Finding good looks begins with better ball movement, a trick that Avery Johnson has stolen from his former Spurs team and passed on to his Mavs team. Better ball movement, T-Mac, means not pulling back for a well-contested three-pointer in the middle of the second quarter. It means not shooting fastbreak jumpers. Dribble penitration will help the outside shooters on this team get better looks.
What Yao brings the Rockets with his return is more reliable inside scoring. The Rockets have recently exploded in their use of the three pointer because few players have the strength or will to regularly attack the basket. T-Mac, who is one of the best inside scorers in the game, has at times become trigger-happy with his jumpshot. The result of this is what you see in the current regular-season record.

THIS ISN'T CUTTING IT, BONZI
It's probably true that the Rockets stole Bonzi Wells, as cheap as his free agent price tag became when he was signed. However, his play has not been indicative of such a flattering statement on a consistent basis. Yao's absence should have been a chance for Bonzi to establish himself as the low-post threat that sic'd the Spurs in the first round of the playoffs last season. Instead, he has been a spotty scorer, whose turnover liability has earned the repeated chagrin of Jeff Van Gundy.
In the home loss to the Celtics, Wells scored 27 points, his highest total as Rocket. This scoring outburst is a mere preview of what Wells's capabilities are. Come playoff time, Bonzi will have to do a little more than average under 8 points a game.
If Juwan Howard remains a bench player with Chuck Hayes back in the starting lineup, he will anchor one of the best potential benches around.
Luther Head, Howard and Wells should each be snagging 15-points a game. For a bench playing trio, that's 45 points alone coming from a supporting cast.
Yao and T-Mac are two of the most dynamic scorers in the game. They are anchored and supported by a host of three point shooters including Duke-born Shane Battier and point guard Rafer Alston.
If Bonzi has one thing going his way, it's that his potential is far greater than his current production. Championship team? The best had better be yet to come, Bonzi.

DEFENSE, DEFENSE, DEFENSE
With Yao Ming out, the quarters where the Rockets have looked and performed like the best defensive team in the league far outnumber the one's where they look like Phoenix attempting a zone.
The Rockets have held the highest scoring team, the Suns, to 19 points in a quarter. They held the high-scoring Dallas to 80 points in a home loss. They held the Los Angeles Lakers to 77 points. Lebron James' Cleveland Cavaliers scored only 61 against the Rockets defense.
There's no doubt this team is a defensive nightmare to its opponents even without its star center. Problem is, the play of late has not reflected this truth.
Tonight's battle with the Cavs will be a great chance for the Rockets to re-obtain that defensive confidence that has made them a formidable championship team.
Halfcourt defense wins championships these days. So get back to playing some.

WE KNOW YOU CAN SHOOT 3'S, GUYS
As addressed above, the Rockets have often struggled to find inside presence with their most reliable scorer unable to play. Hopefully Yao can get this team going in a better attack-mode direction. Three point shooting should be a fallback when a player is unable to get to the basket. The Rockets have built their defense around making star players take well-contested jumpshots. It's no surprise that teams have started to give them some of their own medicine.
The Rockets are going to want about 10 more free throw attempts come playoff time, and they'll want to be able to knock them all down.

Most of these problems cannot be solved tonight, Yao's first game back from injury. However, it is great to have the big fella' back in the lineup. It's really great.

posted by Robert Kleeman @ 1:40 PM