Ref scandal sucks, but upcoming NBA season is reason to rejoice
It's hard to fathom another more than eight-month season of professional hoops begins Tuesday.
Fans will overdosE on the great things the NBA provides that college ball cannot: professional-level execution, tougher defense and the strongest international flavor of any sport that's not futbol (soccer).
Let's get the sour grapes out of the way, so we can get to the delicious entree and sweet dessert.
The Tim Donaghy scandal carries awful repercussions, it sucks. The former ref's betting admission will emotionally injure many in and outside of the sport for years to come. The scandal stains the image of what Commissioner David Stern once called "the most secure, air-tight officiating system in the world."
So much for that claim, buddy.
While Stern repairs his flawed ref system, which should include overhauling the accountability of who officiates what game and consistency of foul calls, I have moved on. Most of you have, too.
And though the Donaghy escapade proves that Dallas Mavericks Owner Mark Cuban has said at least one intelligible thing since he entered the limelight, all is not lost.
With some balance in the Eastern Conference restored, the defending champions set for dangerous, title-hungry competition, a stellar rookie class and the most All-Star level talent the league has seen in decades, this season promises to be a goldmine for classic storylines.
The NFL has escaped one of the worst PR years in sports history (as fans are still watching the game in similar numbers to last year) and baseball fans have overlooked the steroid scandal to set attendance records. The NBA, which also recorded all-time bests in attendance last season, should be afforded the same benefit of the doubt.
Michael Vick at a dogfight or Kobe Bryant making disparaging remarks about a teammate and fussing like a four year old?
Um, I'll take Bryant on this one.
I'd rather have an attention-starved superstar who has mostly lived up to his hype than a promising talent who encouraged animal violence. The NBA has its share of rotten primmadonnas, but it's time for the public to view that five percent as five percent, instead of as a representation of the entire league.
Rasheed Wallace will continue setting technical foul records and cursing like a sailor in a Martin Scorsese film. Ron Artest is hardly ready to close his enormous tab with the Sacramento Police. Maybe he'll offer them a nice tip this season. I hear the jar at the police headquarters could use a refill.
Expect Stephen Jackson to cry and scream like a cancer-stricken four-year-old, as his immaturity and emotionalism will continue to undermine his incredible talent. Don't be surprised if Allen Iverson finds a reason to again exhibit the poor attitude that has landed him a permanent spot on the "don't give any sportsmanship or citizenship awards to this guy--ever" list.
But, this ugly compilation undermines the 96 percent of players who work hard, conduct themselves professionally and only slip up because they want to win so badly.
How about this list of upstanding NBA players: Steve Nash, Tim Duncan, Shane Battier, Yao Ming, Tracy McGrady, Dirk Nowitzki, Derek Fisher, Bruce Bowen, Luol Deng, Kirk Hinrich, Ray Allen - need I continue? I could (for an entire page), but I'll spare you the unwanted reading.
2007-08 PREVIEW
The new season brings with it so many unanswered questions.
Can the San Antonio Spurs cement their dynasty by finally repeating? Can Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce stay healthy and score enough as a trio to lead a team with an unproven point guard and no bench to the top of its conference? Will the Cleveland Cavaliers best the East again, repeating its shocking campaign to reach the 2007 NBA Finals?
Will Phoenix Suns fans ever quit whining about losing to the Spurs in the Western Conference Semifinals, and will Amare Stoudewhiner and Boris Diaw admit they made a moronic decision to leave the bench area during the light brawl between Steve Nash and Robert Horry in that heated game 4?
The next time Dwyane Wade is touched lightly, travels or trips himself on the way to the rack and the ref calls a foul on the defender, can fans resist the urge to let the offficials have it? Expect the "ref you suck" and "it's a fix" chants to make cameo appearances throughout the season.
Will the City of Seattle win its bid to keep the Sonics from becoming Okies? Will the music director at New York Knicks games slip up and play Marvin Gaye's "sexual healing" and "let's get it on?" Will head coach Isiah Thomas have his hands in his pockets and be staring at a female intern when this happens?
Here are all the answers as best I can provide them:
PREDICTING THE CONFERENCE CHAMPS
EASTERN CONFERENCE
1. Chicago Bulls
Why they'll win: The young and athletic Bulls are perhaps the best counter argument to the "West smothers the East" cliche. They're thrilling to watch, have improved defensively in each of the last three years and sport one of the league's most adaptable and flexible young stars in Luol Deng. The post-Jordan Bulls may not win it all, but I expect more this year than a mere first round sweep of the lethargic defending champs.
Worries: Kirk Hinrich is one of the 10 best guards in the league, Ben Wallace, though 34, still unleashes a savage swat and Andres Nocioni has healed from his foot injury last season and is expected to slash through defenses and sink clutch threes. However, the success of this team will depend on the Bull's abaility to score in the low-post and Deng's maturity and decision making. The athletic forward tortured the Miami Heat in the first round, swooshing mid-range jumpers and collecting and-1 opportunities like Wesley Snipes at a tax evasion competition. He then struggled to get rolling against a superior Detroit Pistons defense. Dunking youngster Tyrus Thomas could provide some inside scoring, but he looked every part of the haywire rookie last year and will need to perform consistently to be a scoring threat. The bottom line for the Bulls? No low-post scoring means no championship.
2. Boston Celtics
Why they'll win: The Celtics deservedly vaulted up the power rankings after adding former MVP Garnett and sharpshooter Allen to play alongside resident star Paul Pierce. Garnett is the most skilled and talented player in the game, with a steady mid-range shot and a scary number of career double-doubles. Garnett is as sure a 20-10 performer as it gets. Pierce may be aging, but his plethora of moves in the paint and on the perimeter will compliment Allen's undefendable long range shot.
The big three's assemblance has indeed created a new green machine in Boston. Having three 20 point scorers and perennial All-Stars on the same team creates one helluva foundation. General Manager Danny Ainge's shrewd blockbuster trades to land Garnett and Allen this summer will return a winning tradition to one of the NBA's proudest franchises. But don't count on banner #17 just yet.
Worries: The three stars being asked to carry the Celtics from lottery shame to a title are injury-prone 30 somethings. If one of the three should be benched this season, the dream is over. This team will only go as far as its three high-priced superstars take it and anything less than 20 points per night from all three will be crippling. That's asking a lot of a trio that has yet to play a regular season game together.
Forward James Posey, an invaluable defender and capable three-point contributor, was a terrific pick up. Eddie House can provide double figure scoring on most nights. Still, this team has no bench, no youthful stars to rip through the lane or score reliably when Garnett, Allen and Pierce need rest. Ainge prizes second-year point guard Rajon Rondo and is confident he can run the offense, but 35 percent shooting and a 3 to 2 assist to turnover ratio are not good career stats for a young man expected to thread flawless passes two superstars and at least one future hall of famer. Rondo must prove other teams are foolish when they back off laughing each time he heaves a long jumper (Rondo was a deal breaker in both the Allen and Garnett trades).
3. Detroit Pistons
Why they'll win: Detroit's fate rests in the hands of Richard Hamilton and Chauncey Billups, its brilliant backcourt guard tandem. Billups and Hamilton can still nail game-changing shots, while the former bounced more slick passes to his teammates without turning the ball over than any other player last season (he had a 7-2 assist-turnover ratio). With the lineup that has sent them to five straight Eastern Conference Finals intact (minus Ben Wallace, of course), the Pistons figure to be in the mix in late May. Rookies Aaron Aflalo and Aaron Stuckey displayed terrific stuff in the postseason and will be regular bench contributors. Energetic reserve Jason Maxiell will be this team's biggest bright spot, as age and apathy have contaminated the starting five. Maxiell can steal a pass, run the length of the court and dunk it emphatically. He defends like a bloodhound and does almost everything proficiently--from passing to shooting. His youth could revitalize a team looking prove the 2004 upset of the Los Angeles Lakers was no fluke.
Worries: After watching Detroit squander its 2-0 lead over the Cavaliers in the 2007 Eastern Conference Finals, losing in the third round for the second year in a row, I began wondering: does this team give a flip (no pun intended coach Saunders)?
In that thrilling series, Billups looked more like a Big Flop than a Big Shot. He made the poorest decisions of his career, threw arrant passes and heaved up bricks at decisive moments. The Cavs should have swept the underwhelming and comatose Pistons, as the Motown boys clearly did not take their opponents seriously. For a team banking on flashless veterans who've been there and done that, such playoff apathy concerns me.
4. Cleveland Cavaliers
Why they'll win: Lebron James is no Michael Jordan--he's not that selfish. No, the 23-year-old superstar is more akin to Magic Johnson, a franchise player who also values getting his teammates involved. James proved last year that he's more than willing to share, including a game-changing pass to reserve forward Anderson Varejao in game 3 of the Finals that led to a stupefying shot attempt (Why Andy, why?). James did not score his first field goal in the game 6 of the conference finals or game 1 against the Spurs until the third quarter, instead allowing his teammates to level most of the damage. He also exuded class and professionalism in not complaining about the no call on Bruce Bowen, who fouled James before a three point attempt at the end of game 3. The self-proclaimed King's accountability, improved free throw stroke, clutch mid-range abilities and uncanny athleticism will keep the Cavs in the thick of the playoff race for years to come.
I love Daniel "shoot it Boobie" Gibson's fearlessness. The former Texas star came out of nowhere in the playoffs to become a three point assasin and fan favorite. This second-round steal has the potential to do much greater things alongside James. Drew Gooden gets nasty on the offensive glass and when he pours in the points, it's a huge boost. Unfortunately, my kind words for this surprise conference champion end there.
Worries: With high-energy players Sasha Pavlovic and Varejao still sidelined in a contract dispute, this team looks even more like Lebron James and an assembly of spare parts, straight from your local YMCA. Zydrunas Ilgauskas is the team's go-to post scorer. He's a great guy and what many players have called a great teammate, but his 33-year-old body is showing its limits. The international star cannot be expected to scare defenders much longer. Gooden's offensive reliability could use some Red Cross aid, as it works sometimes like a black plague for the Cavs. This team has no point guard. Gibson can bury open shots, but can he be the distributor James needs to be able to finish plays? Damon Jones won't get it done and David Wesley? Give me a break. The Cavs must re-sign Varejao and Pavlovic on whatever conditions they request. Without them, this team will at best make an early playoff exit. Even with them, they still look like a star nursing a cadre of disjointed parts. But don't despair Cavs fans, your local YMCA branch is looking for some new camp counselors.
5. Orlando Magic
Why they'll win: The Orlando Magic have no chance at winning it all, but they should advance past the first round. Dwight Howard dunked a league high more than 170 times last season. When this low-post killer can add some other moves to his inside game (perhaps some careful TIVO'ing of Tim Duncan might help), he will have enough juice to be the dynamite leader this team needs. His rebounding muscle shocks and awes me. Hedo Turkoglu's drive and international savvy, James Augustine and J.J. Reddick's shooting prowess and Stan Van Gundy's stiff but able coaching will keep the team rolling on a positive trajectory. This team won't pull any David Copperfield tricks this year, though, and here's why:
Worries: The Magic paid nearly $120 million for Rashard Lewis, a potential all-star player who hasn't proven he's worth half that money. I predict dumping the payroll on this guy will hurt more than help the franchise. Jameer Nelson as a starting point guard on a championship contender? The Exorcist scares me less. I liken Nelson to another underachiever, Jamal Tinsley. Some nights, Nelson will dish 8 dimes, grab 4 boards and net 20 points. In others, he'll commit 6 stupefying turnovers, shoot less than 30 percent and garner no assissts. This jarring inconsistency must flatten if the Magic want to taste greater success than a four game sweep from the Pistons.
YOUNG TEAM TO WATCH
Toronto Raptors
Sam Mitchell led his squad to a stunning Atlantic Division title, a 47-win season and received coach of the year honors for his work. I love watching this exuberant squad almost as much as the Bulls. What the Raptors lack in defensive discipline and veteran know-how, they make up for with smart, young players. Anthony Parker's adoption from the Euroleague was the most underrated move last season. Andrea Bargnani is seasoning and developing at a much faster rate than Dirk Nowitzki, the German star most believe he will mirror. Heat coach Pat Riley wasn't zonkers when he hoped to get Chris Bosh instead of Dwyane Wade in the 2003 NBA Draft. Wade has been OK for the Heat (understatement, anyone?) and landed them a title. But where Wade sometimes looks like he's hit a ceiling, Bosh is becoming a monster power forward (he will likely play most of his minutes at center this season). Jason Kapono is not worth the $22 million the Raptors paid for him, but his league best three point shooting percentage will dramatically enhance this team's offensive punch. Jorge Garbajosa, Jose Calderon, Carlos Delfino and T.J. Ford round out a great supporting cast for Bosh. James has made the Cavs his team in four short years and Bosh is doing the same with the Raptors. The difference is, this Canadian team doesn't look like a superglued mess. A Finals appearance will elude this team for at least one more season, but it will get there, and that's no joke.
THE BIG FLOP DOOMED TO FLOUNDER
Miami Heat
If Dwyane Wade stays healthy, he can put up all the MVP-esque numbers he wants. 30 points a game, 8 assists per game, 5 rebounds and a steal. None of it will matter. Shaq might have another season of low-post dominance left in his aging tank, but one of the NBA's best one-two punches cannot carry this one-time champion to greater glory. Defensive specialist James Posey and three point hitman Jason Kapono left in free agency. The Heat traded embattled forward and slumped shooter Antoine Walker for Ricky Davis. This useless exchange does nothing for a franchise that performed one of the most embarrasing title defenses in league history. After getting hardware for their 2006 title, the Heat were then trampled and butchered in a 40 point loss to the Bulls. Dorrell Wright is looking to become the slashing forward Riley needs him to be. His less than double figure scoring average thus far shows he is stumbling miserably. A defending champion swept out of the first round that limped into a fourth place finish's biggest offseason acquisition was Smush Parker, a point guard who couldn't defend a refrigerator.
The Heat amassed a franchise first this preseason: an 0-7 start. To put it kindly, this team sucks. I won't be shocked if it misses the postseason. Hopefully, the Heat will be angry and determined enough to prove me wrong.
LOOK FOR PREDICTED AWARD WINNERS AND WESTERN CONFERENCE PREVIEW IN A FEW HOURS
posted by Robert Kleeman @ 8:27 PM
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